Predicting swings
See the range of results your tournament schedule can produce, so you are ready for the upswings and the downswings, both in your head and in your bankroll.
Free tool
MTT variance calculator: see how far your results can swing
Enter the tournaments you play, your ROI and your volume. The calculator simulates up to 1,000 players with that edge and shows you the downswings, the risk of ruin and the bankroll you need.
Tournament Variance Calculator
Up to 10,000 tournamentsTournament #1Buy-in: $55 ($50 + $5)
Set up each tournament you play. Every field must be filled in before you can run the simulation. Played is how many tournaments of this type each simulated player plays, and the total across all tournaments cannot exceed 10,000. Payouts come from the number of runners, the % of paid places and the size of the prize pool, following the PokerStars payout structure.
Sample
max 1,000
This choice changes the results. Equal: every paid place has the same probability, set from your average winnings at the selected rake. Calculated: in the model every paid place brings in the same expected amount of money, so a higher place is less likely.
Simulation results
No simulation yet
Set your tournaments and sample on the left, then run the simulation to see how these results could have run.
EV · Simulated—
ROI · Simulated—
Probability of loss—
Risk of ruin—
These figures describe the runs that were just sampled, not a prediction. Running the same configuration again returns different numbers, and a real sample of tournaments can fall outside anything shown here.
What is Variance?
In poker, variance is the gap between the results you should get and the results you actually get. The cards are random, so even the best players go through big swings. A variance calculator shows how big those swings can be for your ROI and your volume. That lets you set realistic expectations, size your bankroll for the downswings and stay off tilt when one arrives.
Bankroll Management
Once you know your variance, you know how big a bankroll you need to get through a downswing without going broke.
Realistic Expectations
Short-term results don't show your true skill level. Knowing that keeps you steady on winning streaks and on losing streaks.
Improving Strategy
When you know how deep a normal downswing goes, you can tell a bad run from a real leak and spend your study time where it matters.
Variance Calculator