Bet as Bluff
How often does villain need to fold for your bluff to break even?
% pot
Villain has to fold41.2%
Call vs Bet
How often does villain need to be bluffing for your call to break even?
% pot
Villain has to bluff40.0%
What breakeven actually tells you
Breakeven is the line the play has to clear. Above it the play makes money, below it the play burns it.
Bluffing
A bluff is breakeven when villain folds often enough to pay for the times he does not. Bet 70% of pot and he has to fold 41.2% of the time. Every fold above that is profit, and every fold below it is a leak you are choosing.
Calling
A call is breakeven when villain’s range contains enough weak hands to pay for the times he has it. Facing a pot-sized bet you need to be good 33.3% of the time; the question is only whether his range gets there.
Poker Breakeven Calculator (Free)