Predicting swings
A poker variance calculator can show you the range of possible outcomes for your tournament play, helping you prepare mentally and financially for both upswings and downswings.
Free tool
Calculate your tournament success with our variance calculator
Tool that allows to simulate multi-table tournament results based on your skill level and tournament parameters. Understand your variance and optimize your bankroll management.
Tournament Variance Calculator
Up to 10,000 tournamentsTournament #1Buy-in: $55 ($50 + $5)
Tournament properties to align to your favourites or played once. Configuration of each tournament has to be fully set to allow simulation. Number decides how many tournaments of this type will be simulated per each player. Sum for all tournaments cannot be higher than 10000. Payout is calculated based of players in the tournament, % of paid places and size of total price pool. Based on the PokerStars payout structure.
Sample
max 1,000
Place probability type might change the final results: Equal means that each paid place has the same probability based of average winning for selected rake. Calculated means each paid place in mathematical model should receive the same amount of money - higher place is less probable.
Simulation results
No simulation yet
Set your tournaments and sample on the left, then run the simulation to see how these results could have run.
EV · Simulated—
ROI · Simulated—
Probability of loss—
Risk of ruin—
These figures describe the runs that were just sampled, not a prediction. Running the same configuration again returns different numbers, and a real sample of tournaments can fall outside anything shown here.
What is Variance?
In poker, variance means the difference between your expected results and your actual results. Even the best players experience significant swings due to the random nature of the cards. A variance calculator helps you understand these swings, set realistic expectations, and manage your bankroll effectively. Understanding variance is crucial for maintaining a healthy poker career and avoiding tilt during inevitable downswings.
Bankroll Management
By understanding your variance, you can determine the appropriate bankroll size to weather downswings without going broke. This is essential for long-term poker success.
Realistic Expectations
Variance calculations help you understand that short-term results don't necessarily reflect your true skill level. This keeps you grounded during both winning and losing streaks.
Improving Strategy
Analyzing variance helps you distinguish between unlucky runs and genuine leaks in your game, allowing you to focus your study time on areas that truly need improvement.
Variance Calculator