Continuation bets: how often and how big, by board texture

The preflop raiser gets to the flop with two decisions: bet or check, and if bet, how big. The old rule says small on dry boards, big on wet ones. That gets you part of the way, and it skips the question that settles most of these spots: who has more good hands on this particular flop.

In this article I use two aggregated flop reports from Poker Academy. Each one is a single preflop spot solved on a set of flops with one sizing menu on every board, so the columns compare from flop to flop and add up. That matters more than the number of flops, because a report that mixes menus gives you averages that don’t mean anything.

What a continuation bet is

A continuation bet (c-bet) is a bet on the flop by the player who made the last raise preflop. In position, you c-bet after your opponent checks to you. Out of position, you act first, so the c-bet is your first bet.

Two numbers describe a c-bet strategy on a flop: the frequency (how much of your range bets) and the size (as a share of the pot). The solver picks both at the same time, for the whole range.

The two spots

• Spot 1, in position. MTT, 20bb, 9-handed, 1bb big-blind ante. The button opens to 2bb, the big blind calls. Pot on the flop: 2 + 2 + 0.5 + 1 = 5.5bb, 18bb behind (SPR 18 / 5.5 = 3.3). The big blind checks; I look at the button’s decision. Report 3514: 25 flops, sizes 19%, 30%, 60% and 120% of the pot.
• Spot 2, out of position. MTT, 50bb, 9-handed, 1bb big-blind ante. Everyone folds to the small blind, who raises to 4bb; the big blind calls. Pot: 4 + 4 + 1 = 9bb, 46bb behind (SPR 46 / 9 = 5.1). The small blind acts first. Report 1479: 184 flops, sizes 15%, 30%, 60% and 120% of the pot.

Every flop in a report carries a weight: the share of all 22,100 flops it stands for. The 184-flop set of spot 2 tracks the real board space closely, with 22.2% of its weight on ace-high flops against 21.7% in reality. The 25-flop set of spot 1 is a texture sample, and it holds exactly one ace-high flop, so I read that line as one board rather than an average.

Spot 1: the button bets almost always, and almost always tiny

After the big blind checks, the button bets 89.5% of its range across the 25 flops of the report, weighted, and checks 10.5%. The size is where it gets interesting. 86.1% of the range bets one of the two small sizes, 43.1% at 19% of the pot and 43.0% at 30%. Another 3.1% bets 60%, and 0.2% uses the 120% option. Small here is 1.0bb or 1.7bb into 5.5bb; the two big ones are 3.3bb and 6.6bb.

• The one ace-high flop (A♣5♦3♥): bet 99.5%, and 63.3% of the range picks the 60% size. It is the only flop in the report where a big size is the main size.
• King- to ten-high (18 flops): bet 93.9%, and 91.1% of the range takes one of the two small sizes. Anything bigger, 2.8%.
• Nine-high or lower (6 flops): bet 74.8%, check 25.2%. Small sizes 72.8%, big ones 2.0%.
• Paired flops (10): bet 81.0%, and the big sizes all but disappear (0.5%).

Single boards say it plainly. On K♣︎J♦︎8♥︎ the button bets 98.7%, and 93.7% of the range picks one of the two small sizes. On 7♣︎4♦︎2♥︎ it checks 30.5%. The board it checks most is a paired one, Q♣︎5♦︎5♥︎, at 38.4%.

Why: range advantage and nut advantage

Two terms explain these numbers. Neither is a solver output; they are the usual way to read one.

• Range advantage: your whole range has more equity than the other player’s range. The report shows it directly. Across its 25 flops the button has 59.7% equity against 40.4%.
• Nut advantage: you have more of the very strong hands (sets, two pair, straights, and on an ace-high board the strong top pairs). This one lives at the top of the range, where an average hides it.

This report separates the two unusually cleanly, because equity does not track the sizes. The button’s equity is 60.0% on A♣︎5♦︎3♥︎ and higher, 63.3%, on K♣︎J♦︎8♥︎, and it still bets 60% of the pot on the first board and 19 to 30% on the second. Equity says how often you can bet. What sits at the top of each range says how big.

You can check the top of the range in the preflop charts of the same simulation. Against a 2bb button open at 20bb the big blind never calls with a pocket pair. It raises or jams every pair from 22 to AA, so on an unpaired flop it has no sets and no overpairs at all. The button’s 44, 33 and 22 jam preflop rather than open, so it doesn’t hold those either. Counting the combos on four flops from the report:

• A♣︎5♦︎3♥︎: the button has 91 top-pair combos and 6 sets, the big blind 34 top pairs and no sets. Top pair or better: 25.9% of the button’s range against 7.0%. The reason is preflop: the big blind raises or jams AKs–ATs and AKo–A9o, so the aces it brings to the flop are the small suited ones, while the button opens every ace down to A2o. The big blind’s only nutted hands here are 4 combos of 42 suited, for the wheel. Biggest edge at the top in the report, and the only board where a big c-bet is the main size.
• K♣︎J♦︎8♥︎: the button has 9 sets and 6 overpairs against none, and 23.5% top pair or better against 15.7%. But the big blind has more kings than the button (93 combos against 61), because it flats K2o–K9o. The edge at the very top is real but thin, so: bet almost always, and small.
• 8♣︎5♣︎3♦︎ and 7♣︎4♦︎2♥︎: here the two pairs belong to the big blind, 20 combos and 13 combos against none for the button, which opens neither 85, 83, 53, 74, 72 nor 42. Its counterweight is overpairs: 36 combos on one board, 42 on the other. Top pair or better 19.4% against 14.3%, and 16.2% against 14.7%. It checks 25.2% and 30.5%.

Overpairs are strong hands short of the nuts, and they don’t want to build a big pot against a range full of two pair. Hence the rule of thumb, a heuristic rather than something the solver states: range advantage lets you bet often, nut advantage lets you bet big. With a big range advantage and no edge at the top, you bet often and small, which is what this report does on 24 of its 25 boards.

Spot 2: out of position, the small blind bets less

The small blind at 50bb has a different job. It acts first, and the big blind calls a 4bb raise with a range that still has pocket pairs: it 3-bets AA, KK, QQ, AK and AQo every time and JJ 93% of the time, but calls 99 down to 22 almost always and TT 60% of the time (chart, same simulation). This caller can flop sets. At 50bb the small blind also limps most of its range (939.6 of 1,326 combos limp, 222.8 raise), so the raising range here is only 16.8% of hands.

Across 184 flops the small blind bets 62.1% and checks 37.9%. By size: 15% pot 20.2%, 30% pot 30.8%, 60% pot 6.6%, 120% pot 4.5%. In bb that’s 1.3bb, 2.7bb, 5.4bb and 10.8bb into 9bb.

Spot 1’s pattern shows up again. On ace-high flops the small size (15%) is the biggest bet slice, 30.8%. On seven-high and lower the 60% size takes 25.9% of the range, against 3.8% on ace- and king-high flops. My reading, not solver output: low boards hit the big blind’s pairs, the small blind keeps its overpairs, so it bets bigger with the part of the range that bets.

• Paired flops (63): bet 73.3%, mostly 30% (43.0%). The report doesn’t say why; my reading is that a paired board gives the caller fewer new strong hands.
• Monotone flops (11): check 53.9%. Almost every bet is 15% (39.7%); all larger sizes together are 6.3%.
• Rainbow (105) vs two-tone (68): bet 66.6% and 60.3%.

One board, three suit patterns, and it is the same K♣︎J♦︎8♥︎ the button bet 98.7% of the time in spot 1. Same cards, different seat and deeper stacks, and the answer changes. K♣︎J♦︎8♥︎ (rainbow): check 46.5%, and the bets split between 15% (23.7%), 30% (18.3%) and 120% (9.7%). K♣︎J♣︎8♦︎ (two-tone): check 51.1%, 15% 28.9%, 120% 16.2%. K♣︎J♣︎8♣︎ (monotone): check 64.0%, 15% 32.9%, and nothing larger above 1.5%.

On the two-tone board the strategy gets more polar: more checks, more small bets and more 120% bets, less of the middle. My reading (not solver output): there are many draws to charge, and the hands that want a big pot bet big, the rest check or bet tiny. On the monotone board a flush is already possible, nobody wants a big pot, and the bets shrink.

Common mistakes, and what the reports say

• “Dry board, bet small.” Not always. A♣︎5♦︎3♥︎ is rainbow and unpaired, and the button puts 63.3% of its range in for 60% of the pot, because its range has the aces and the other one doesn’t.
• “Wet board, bet big.” Same problem. On nine-high or lower the button checks a quarter of the time and its big sizes together are 2.0%; on monotone flops the small blind bets 15% or checks.
• Treating top pair as the nuts. On K♣︎J♦︎8♥︎ the big blind holds more kings than the button. Top pair is a strong hand, not the top of the range.
• Copying in-position frequencies out of position. The button bets 89.5% of its range at 20bb; the small blind at 50bb bets 62.1%. The seat differs, the stacks differ and so do the ranges.

All numbers above are for these two spots: MTT, BB ante, one stack depth each, and each from one report solved with one sizing menu. At 100bb cash, or against a cutoff open, the ranges change and so do the frequencies. Open the report for your spot before you copy a number.

How to use this at the table

• Ask who has the strong hands first. Think about which pairs, two pairs and straights the caller’s range can have. Sets are the easiest to count: does the caller flat pocket pairs in this spot?
• High card favours the raiser. In spot 1 the button bets 93.9% on king- to ten-high flops and 74.8% on nine-high or lower. In spot 2 the gap is smaller: the small blind checks 36.9% on ace- and king-high flops and 41.8% on nine-high or lower.
• Low and connected, check more. That is where the caller’s range connects, and where it holds the two pairs you can’t have.
• Small is the default size. In spot 1 the two small sizes take 86.1% of the range between them; a big size is the main size on one flop out of 25. Save it for boards where your range owns the top.
• Paired, bet small and often. Monotone, bet small or check.

These are rules of thumb built from two reports. The reports themselves are the better tool: in the app you can group any report by high card, pairing or suits, and click a single flop to see the strategy.

Cheers! 🙂